Waiting for the market: 10 factors that will determine the performance of stocks on Friday

Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty closed higher on Thursday, tracking gains in their global peers, after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting indicated a likely rate cut in the US next month.

The NSE 50 elegant The S&P BSE index rose 0.17% to 24,811. Sensex added 0.18% to 81,053.

This is how analysts read the market pulse:

“On the daily chart, the Nifty continues to move towards the upper Bollinger band. Moreover, the index has remained above the critical short-term moving average. The sentiment may continue to favour the bulls as long as it remains above 24,650. On the other hand, the current rise could extend towards 25,000 in the near term,” said Rupak De of LKP Securities. Tejas Shah of JM Financial & BlinkX said, “The short-term moving averages are just below the price action and should continue to support the indices on every dip. Support for the index is now seen at 24,775 and 24,600-650 levels. On the upside, the immediate resistance for the Nifty is at 24,850 level and the next resistance is at 25,000 mark.”

That said, let’s take a look at what some key indicators suggest for Friday’s action:

US Market:
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose amid a volatile session on Thursday, boosted by hopes that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates next month. This optimism came after minutes from the Fed’s recent meeting indicated a rate cut was likely.

New claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly, indicating an improvement in labor market conditions, while a survey showed business activity was at its lowest level in four months. At 9:50 a.m., the Dow Jones fell 0.05% to 40,870.11, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.16% and 0.23%, respectively.

Technical view:
The Nifty on Thursday closed its weekly expiry 41 points higher and formed a higher high-higher low formation for the fifth consecutive session. The daily charts showed the formation of a bearish candle as the index closed below its opening level.

Now Nifty needs to continue holding above 24700 zones to extend the move towards 25000 and 25100 zones, while supports are placed at 24700 and then 24550 zones, said Chandan Taparia of Motilal Oswal.

“We have seen a decline in volatility with an increase in the put-call ratio, indicating that the overall bullish bias could continue in the market. The VIX has recently declined from 23 to 13 zones and the lower volatility suggests an overall bullish stance in the market,” he said.

The RSI is trending up near the 60.46 level, which further indicates bullish momentum in the market.

Stocks showing bullish bias:
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator showed bullish trading on the counters of Varroc Engineering, Natco Pharma, IndiGo, Indian Hotels, Piramal Enterprises and Endurance Technologies, among others.

The MACD is known for signaling trend changes in traded securities or indices. When the MACD crosses above the signal line, it gives a bullish signal, indicating that the security’s price may experience an upward movement and vice versa.

Actions that indicate weakness in the future:
The MACD showed bearish signals on the counters of Ethos, Suzlon Energy, Embassy Office Parks REIT and Chaman Lal Setia Exports, among others. The bearish crossover of the MACD on these counters indicated that they have just started their downward trajectory.

Most active stocks in terms of value:
Kalyan Jewellers (Rs 2,161 crore), Zomato (Rs 1,924 crore), HDFC Bank (Rs 1,738 crore), RIL (Rs 1,564 crore), Mazagon Dock Ship (Rs 1,340 crore), Paytm (Rs 1,205 crore) and Shyam Metalics (Rs 1,134 crore), among others, were among the most active stocks on NSE in terms of value. Higher activity on a counter in terms of value can help identify counters with higher trading volumes on the day.

Most active stocks in terms of volume:
Vodafone Idea (shares traded: Rs 27.8 crore), Alok Industries (shares traded: Rs 14 crore), YES Bank (shares traded: Rs 8.5 crore), Zomato (shares traded: Rs 7.3 crore), HFCL (shares traded: Rs 5.5 crore), Suzlon Energy (shares traded: Rs 4.1 crore) and Nyka (shares traded: Rs 4 crore), among others, were among the most traded stocks in the session on NSE.

Stocks showing buying interest:
Shares of Shyam Metalics, Natco Pharma, Jindal Saw, Balrampur Chini, Trent, TVS Motor and CESCC, among others, witnessed strong buying interest from market participants as they touched their fresh 52-week highs, indicating bullish sentiment.

Stocks see selling pressure:
No major stocks hit their 52-week lows on Thursday.

Sentiment gauge favors bulls:
Overall, market breadth favored the bulls as 2,409 stocks ended in the green, while 1,548 names closed in the red.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions of the experts are their own and do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

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