The revenue growth will be driven by expansion in the two-wheeler company’s quarterly volumes and average selling price (ASP) on a year-on-year basis in the reporting quarter.
The estimates have been provided by Kotak Institutional Equities, to the nuvas Institutional equity, Yes Values and Axis Securities.
The highest estimates for profit after tax (PAT) are provided by Axis, while the lowest are provided by Nuvama. As for revenue, the highest estimates are provided by Axis Securities, while Nuvama has provided the most conservative figures.
The company will announce its quarterly earnings on Tuesday, August 13. Here’s what runners recommended:Kotak shares
Kotak Equities has estimated PAT growth of Rs 1,193 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2024, which could grow 27.3% YoY and 17.4% QoQ. Revenue is expected to be Rs 10,600 crore, which may grow 21% YoY and 11% QoQ.
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the reported quarter is estimated at Rs 1,582 crore, up 31.2% and 16.4% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, respectively. EBITDA margin is expected at 14.9%, which could lead to a year-on-year growth of 116 basis points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64 basis points.
“We expect revenue to grow 21% YoY in Q1FY25, led by a 13-14% YoY increase in volumes driven by steady demand trends on account of recovery in the executive motorcycle segment and coupled with a 6-7% YoY increase in ASPs on account of price increases and richer product mix (higher mix of premium motorcycles),” a Kotak note said.
Meanwhile, EBITDA margin is expected to improve, driven primarily by benefits from operating leverage and lower advertising expenses, partially offset by raw material headwinds.
New
Nuvama expects PAT to grow by 14% and 10% YoY and QoQ to Rs 1,119 crore, while revenue could rise 17% YoY and 7% QoQ to Rs 10,232 crore. EBITDA is expected to be Rs 1,483 crore, up 23% and 9% on YoY and QoQ basis.
On the outlook, Nuvama said Hero Moto’s revenue growth could be in double digits by FY25, on the back of improved urban and rural demand, new products and premiumisation. Exports are also likely to improve on the back of increased penetration in existing markets, entry into new markets and shifting of distributors in Nepal, Nigeria and the Philippines, it said.
The likely launch of Hero Xoom125/160 models in the first half of fiscal year 2025 is anticipated to further strengthen the company’s position in the scooter market.
Yes Values
The two-wheeler company is expected to report a PAT of Rs 1,271 crore in the April-June period, which may rise 35% YoY and 25% QoQ. Revenue in the said quarter could reach Rs 10,654 crore, up 22% YoY and 12% QoQ.
EBITDA is estimated at around Rs 1,617 crore, representing a growth of 142 basis points year-on-year, while a growth of 90 basis points on a quarterly basis.
Revenue is set to increase on the back of volume growth of 13.5% YoY/+10.3% QoQ to 1.54 million units, coupled with realisation growth of +7.1% YoY/+1.5% QoQ to Rs69.4k/units on account of price increases and higher share of premium products. EBITDA margins are likely to expand driven by improved operating leverage.
Axis values
PAT is expected to rise 16% YoY while declining 0.5% to Rs 1,926 crore, while revenue is estimated at Rs 11,778 crore, up 14% YoY and 2.6% QoQ. Revenue is expected to rise on the back of rising volumes by 7% YoY and higher ASPs.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions of the experts are their own and do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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