Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Ukraine is not a balancing act but a timely strategic move that translates India’s stance towards strategic autonomy on the ground and showcases its ability to negotiate with Russia and Ukraine’s closest Western allies like the United States. Mint explains.
What is the context of Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Ukraine?
Modi is the first Indian prime minister to visit Ukraine, 30 years after India first established diplomatic relations. The visit comes in the context of his visit to Russia in July, which was seen as disappointing by Ukraine and unnecessary by the United States and its Western allies. However, India has not hesitated to proclaim its proximity to Russia, while insisting on the need for dialogue and diplomacy for an eventual end to the war.
This visit should be seen as an effort in that direction. It is also a measure to restructure its relationship with Central Europe, which remains strategic for a rising India.
What’s on the agenda?
India has stated that the aim of the visit is to address the entire range of ties between India and Ukraine, including in the areas of agriculture, infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, health and education, defence and people-to-people ties. However, what remains in greater focus is whether India will present itself as a potential mediator between Russia and Ukraine or refrain from making a specific proposal for a peace deal and merely stress the importance of dialogue and diplomacy.
In this regard, India has also demonstrated its willingness to offer whatever support may be needed not only to find a peaceful solution to the conflict, but also in the process of Ukraine’s recovery.
What role can India play in possibly ending the war?
Prime Minister Modi has clearly underlined the futility of war and has pushed for dialogue and diplomacy for an eventual end to the war. India has not detailed a peace plan but has demonstrated its willingness to play the role of peacemaker, a role which, if it does so, will enhance its global status. However, India did not attend or endorse the joint statement of the Ukraine Peace Summit held in June in Switzerland.
Why are Ukraine and Europe important for India’s growth?
India has clearly stressed that Europe is a priority in its foreign policy and a central element of its rising power status. Ukraine remains the “heart” of India’s relationship with Europe’s subregions, particularly Central Europe. India’s position vis-à-vis Ukraine is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it demonstrates its ability to manage its autonomy and balance its interests strategically. On the other, it also underlines its potential as a potential peacemaker as a rising power, given its proximity to Russia, and its ability to be a potential counterweight to China in Asia for the United States.
Why would the United States, China and Russia be closely following this visit?
Ukraine and its Western allies, particularly the US, believe that India has greater leverage over Russia than any other Western power. In this context, Modi’s visit has been welcomed by the US and is seen as a sign of a united global community in Ukraine.
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Russia will be closely following the situation. Despite enormous pressure and criticism from the West, India is the world’s largest buyer of Russian arms and has sought to cash in on cheaper Russian oil, while the United States and European countries are trying to limit the Russian energy sector’s access to the global market. China is closely following India’s visit and its possible role as a mediator in this conflict.
Shweta Singh is an Associate Professor at the Department of International Relations, South Asia University.
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