F&O Outliers: September seasonality hits ICICI Bank, Adani Ports, TVS Motors and seven others. Here’s why

A look at the past 10 Septembers reveals five F&O stocks that have shown positive seasonality with average returns of over 5%. There are also five stocks that have shown negative seasonality in this month over the past 10 years with average negative returns of 2% or more.

Stocks with positive seasonality include TVS Motor Company, Deepak Nitrite, Abbott India, Kubota Escorts, Zee Entertainment and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories While those with negative seasonality are ICICI Bank, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ), State Bank of India (SBI), Cummins India, India.

Positive seasonality

TVS Engines tops the list with an average return of 8.9% in September over the past 10 years. It is followed by Deepak Nitrite (6.4%) and Abbott India (6.3%). Escorts, Zee Entertainment and Dr Reddy’s are next with returns of 6.1%, 5.8% and 5.6% respectively.

These stocks have ended in positive territory and with returns of more than 5% on at least eight out of 10 occasions, according to a note from JM Financial.

The note also estimates that this time there is a 90 per cent chance that TVS Motor, Deepak Nitrite and Abbott India will close with positive results. As for Escorts, Zee and Dr Reddy’s, there is an 80 per cent chance that they will close with positive results, the note said.

Negative seasonality

JM Financial sees a 90% chance of ICICI Bank ending in the red in September, while for the rest, it is 80%. ICICI Bank has been the biggest laggard among its peers in September, with an average price erosion of 4.1%. Next in line are Adani Ports and SBI, which have fallen 2.9% on average, while Cummins and Dabur have corrected 2.1% and 2%, respectively.

On Thursday, the August series closed with gains of 201 points or 0.80% compared to the July series. Main index Skilled Today it closed at 25,151.95 after reaching an all-time high of 25,192.90.Also read: TCS, Infosys among 10 stocks brokerages are eyeing to buy after Q1 results(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions of the experts are their own and do not represent the views of Economic Times)