The monsoon generally begins in June and starts receding on September 17.
India’s monsoon rains are likely to last till late September this year due to the development of a low pressure system in the middle of the month, two meteorological department officials told Reuters.
Above-normal rainfall due to delayed monsoon withdrawal could damage India’s summer crops such as rice, cotton, soybean, maize and pulses, which are normally harvested from mid-September onwards.
Crop damage could lead to food price inflation, but the rains could also bring increased soil moisture, benefiting the planting of winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas.
“There is a higher chance of a low pressure system developing in the third week of September, which could delay the withdrawal of monsoon,” said a senior official of the India Meteorological Department, requesting anonymity because the matter is sensitive.
India, the world’s second-largest producer of wheat, sugar and rice, has imposed several export restrictions on these agricultural products, and any loss due to excessive rainfall could prompt New Delhi to extend those restrictions.
The monsoon generally begins in June and starts to retreat on September 17 in the northwestern parts of the country, ending across the country by mid-October.
The monsoon, the lifeblood of a nearly $3.5 trillion economy, provides nearly 70 percent of the annual rainfall India needs to irrigate farms and replenish reservoirs and aquifers. Without irrigation, nearly half of the country’s farmland depends on the rains that typically fall between June and September.
The monsoon rains in September and October could be influenced by La Nina weather conditions, which are likely to develop from next month, another IMD official said.
In the past, when La Nina develops during the second half of the monsoon season, it has caused a delay in the withdrawal of monsoons, the official said, adding that “this year, we could see a similar pattern.”
The two sources shared their assessment ahead of the IMD’s monthly forecast on September rainfall and monsoon withdrawal, which is scheduled for this weekend.
India has received 7% more rainfall than average since the monsoon season began on June 1. However, some states have experienced up to 66% more rainfall than average, leading to flooding.
Heavy rains during the third and fourth weeks of September and early October could affect early sown crops that are close to harvest, said Ashwini Bansod, vice president, commodity research, Phillip Capital India.
“The impact will depend on the intensity and duration of the rains. If the rains persist till the first half of October, they could cause further damage if the fields are flooded,” Bansod said.
(Only the headline and image of this report may have been reworked by Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
First published: August 29, 2024 | 19:17 IS
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