Gross Value Added (GVA) growth in agriculture and allied activities in the first quarter of the financial year 2024-25 (Q1FY25) declined to 2.7 per cent at constant prices from 4.2 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a fall in production of some crops following the heatwave in the key growing months.
Scant post-monsoon rains, which dried up most reservoirs in several states of the country, also affected the production of many crops.
At current prices, growth was estimated at 8.5 per cent against 4.1 per cent in the first quarter of FY24 due to a rise in food inflation during the months of April-June FY25.
However, most experts believe that the pace of GVA growth in agriculture and allied activities in the coming months will accelerate considerably as the southwest monsoon in 2024 has been one of the best in recent years.
This year, rainfall from June 1 to August 30 was 7 percent more than normal. As a result, the area under kharif crop till August 23, 2024 was almost 2 percent more than the same period last year.
A good southwest monsoon has also filled the reservoirs, which will help in planting the upcoming rabi crops.
“We maintain the annual growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities at 3.5-4 per cent as the monsoon has been good so far. The first quarter has been lower than expected due to a fall in production of auxiliary crops and also allied activities as the April-June heatwave took its toll,” Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, told Business Standard.
Production of several rabi crops, particularly maize, cereals and pulses, was lower than in 2023 due to dry weather.
The 2023 southwest monsoon season ended with a deficit of 5.6 percent, categorizing it as a “below normal” monsoon season.
According to statistics, the cumulative rainfall from June 1 to September 30 across India was around 821 millimetres, against an average of 869 millimetres. This also meant that the 2023 monsoon season ended with rainfall equivalent to 94 per cent of the long-period average (LPA).
The IMD had forecast rainfall in 2023 to be around 96 percent of the LPA, with a model error of plus or minus 4 percent.
First published: August 30, 2024 | 21:20 IS
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