US swing states in focus: Kamala Harris leads in Nevada, Georgia and other key areas — Is Trump’s comeback a pipe dream?

The US presidential race has undergone a dramatic shift this month following the candidacy of Kamala HarrisNational polls show support for the Democrat rising steadily, and many national surveys now give her a lead in key states. State-by-state Electoral College results will determine the winner of the election in early November, with a handful of battleground states playing a decisive role.

A candidate for the US presidency would need at least 270 electoral votes to win the White House. Each state is allocated the votes corresponding to its congressional delegation (the number of members of the House of Representatives plus two senators). Georgia, for example, has 16 electors to equal its 14 representatives and two senators.

Swing states play a major role in the changing electoral landscape and can essentially make or break an election. The “purple states” in the 2024 race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump For example, contributing almost 100 electoral votes.

What do the polls say at the end of August 2024?

Data collected from disputed states After the Democratic National Convention indicated that the Vice President now has the advantage in the electoral race.According to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll from earlier this week, Harris has a lead over Donald Trump in each of the seven states most likely to decide the race.

A poll released Tuesday by the FAU PolCom Lab and Mainstreet Research USA puts the Democrat with a 4-point lead over former President Donald Trump among American voters. She had a similar lead in the Morning Consult poll released this week and also saw an uptick in support according to Fox News polls released Wednesday. Harris also leads Trump by 45% to 41% in the Reuters/Ipsos poll released Thursday.

What exactly are hinge states?

The United States of America is made up of 50 states and the federal district of Washington DC. Some of these states tend to vote in a predictable or “safe” manner to elect members of the same party (Democrat or Republican) every four years. Others pose a somewhat more unpredictable situation with outcomes that swing between red and blue. Politicians often spend a disproportionate amount of campaign time and resources courting people in these states. Swing states show small voting margins and tend to shift over time.

In the 2020 election, seven states were won by a margin of less than 3%. Joe Biden had won Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, NE-02, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Trump emerged as the apparent choice for ME-02, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

Allocation of electoral votes in the current “pending” states:
Arizona – 11
Georgia – 16
Pennsylvania – 19
Michigan – 15
North Carolina – 16
Nevada-6
Wisconsin-10

Breakdown by state

Harris now has a 2 percentage point lead among registered voters in all seven states. She has a 1 point lead — a statistical tie — among likely voters, a group that campaigns and pollsters are beginning to turn their attention to as Election Day approaches. The statistical margin of error is 1 percentage point in all seven states.

The reversal of fortunes is most visible in North Carolina, where Harris now holds a 2-point lead. Trump held a 10-point lead in April, and no Democratic presidential candidate has won the state since Barack Obama in 2008. Recent developments have forced Republicans to spend more than $16 million on television ads supporting Trump in the past five weeks.

(With contributions from agencies)