Bharat Forge in focus after North American Class 8 truck orders remain below seasonal expectations

Bharat Forge Ltd. shares will be in focus on Friday after North American Class 8 truck orders were reported Friday morning Indian time.

According to FTR Transport Intelligence data, preliminary Class 8 orders in August totaled 13,400 units, up 2% from July but down 16% from the same month last year.

The figure is also below seasonal expectations, as the average monthly increase from July to August has been around 20% over the past seven years.

This is the third time this year that North American Class 8 truck orders have declined year-over-year. It is also the sixth consecutive month that North American Class 8 truck orders have remained below 20,000 units.

“The combination of a stagnant truckload market and full or near-full 2024 order boards are likely to be the primary drivers behind a lower-than-typical increase,” FTR said in a note.

Class 8 truck orders in North America have totaled 2.71 lakh units so far in the past 12 months.

Backlog of orders for the year is slightly below replacement demand levels, averaging 18,375 net orders per month.

“Despite stagnant freight markets, fleets continue to invest in new equipment, albeit at a slower pace. We expect further reductions in backlogs once final Class 8 market data is released later this month and continued growth in already record-high inventory levels. Pressure on OEMs to reduce production rates is mounting,” said Dan Moyer, senior commercial vehicle analyst at FTR.

Bharat Forge, a supplier of automotive and defense components, has a presence in the Class 8 truck market in North America.

Bharat Forge announced in June an additional $40 million investment in Bharat Forge America.

Brokerage firm UBS wrote in a note in Bharat Forge on Thursday that it expects the share of the company’s defence business as a part of overall revenue to rise to 20% by financial year 2027 from the current 10%.

UBS has a buy rating on Bharat Forge with a target price of ₹2,000.

Shares of Bharat Forge closed little changed at Rs 1,607 on Thursday. The stock is up nearly 30% so far in 2024.

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