In a thrilling Test match at The Oval, Sri Lanka stunned England with an eight-wicket win, marking their first Test win against the hosts in a decade. Although Sri Lanka lost the three-match series 1-2, this victory in the final match had huge implications for both teams, particularly in the race to qualify for the 2025 World Test Championship (WTC) final. For England, this defeat has dealt a critical blow to their WTC aspirations, and fans are wondering – can Ben Stokes and his team make it to the WTC final?
Sri Lanka overtakes England in WTC points table#WorldTrialChampionship #Sri Lanka Cricket #PathumNissanka photo.twitter.com/rNtqw7Yyrx
— Sitarah Anjum Official (@SitarahAnjum) September 9, 2024
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Sri Lanka’s surprise victory
The atmosphere at The Oval was electric as Sri Lanka, led by a rejuvenated bowling attack, outclassed England. Despite two earlier defeats in the series, the visitors held firm, showing grit and determination. With the bat, Sri Lanka’s top order held firm, chasing down a modest target with ease. Their disciplined approach saw them comfortably secure an eight-wicket win, ensuring they left England with a sense of achievement and a very important boost in the WTC standings.
Sri Lanka’s victory allows them to move up to fifth in the WTC rankings with a points percentage of 42.86%. More importantly, the win significantly damages England’s chances of reaching the final of the 2025 World Test Championship.
England’s path to WTC final narrows after defeat
England came into the match with a huge boost, having secured the series with wins in the first two Tests. However, this loss has pushed them down to sixth place in the WTC standings, with their points percentage falling to 42.19%. The loss, coupled with earlier defeats to Australia and India, leaves England with little room for error in the remaining matches of the 2023-25 cycle.
Under the leadership of Ben Stokes, England will have to pull off a near-miraculous comeback if they are to be in contention for the WTC final. From now on, every match will become a must-win, and even that won’t be enough.
Final WTC qualifying scenario for England
At the moment, the standings are led by India and Australia, both with a comfortable lead over England. India is at the top with a points percentage of 68.52%, while Australia is next with 62.50%. Both teams have a few matches left and even if they suffer a few defeats, they can stay ahead of England in the race for the final.
For England, the task is daunting. They have six Test matches left in this WTC cycle. If they manage to win all six, their maximum achievable points percentage will be just 57.95%. This puts them below India and Australia, meaning England will not only have to win every match, but will also be dependent on both India and Australia making significant errors.
The influence of India on the destiny of England
India have 10 matches left in this WTC cycle, including five Test matches at home and five away. Even if India lose five away matches to Australia, they can still stay ahead of England if they win their home matches. For England to have a chance of overtaking India, Rohit Sharma’s side would have to lose at least six of their remaining 10 matches, a highly unlikely scenario given India’s dominant form in recent years.
The tough road ahead for Australia
Australia, who have seven matches left in their WTC campaign, also pose a significant threat to England’s hopes. The Aussies have an away tour of Sri Lanka followed by a crucial home series against India. Even if Australia only win four of their remaining matches, they will be guaranteed a higher points percentage than England, making their qualification for the finals almost certain.
England’s chances: a risky bet
Realistically, England’s path to the WTC final is extremely tricky. With a current points percentage of just 42.19%, Ben Stokes and his team will have to deliver flawless performances in the remaining matches. But even that might not be enough. England’s qualification now depends on other results going their way perfectly, especially India and Australia underperforming – a situation that seems unlikely given the current form of both teams.
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