Bitcoin rises:The cryptocurrency bitcoin hit a three-month high in early Asian trading on Monday and the dollar looked like it would extend its market gains in the countdown to the US presidential election in two weeks.
Election polls show increasing odds that former President Donald Trump will win the Nov. 5 election and are boosting the dollar as his proposed tariff and tax policies are seen likely to keep U.S. interest rates high and undermine U.S. currencies. business partners.
Currency moves in major markets last week were driven by the European Central Bank’s moderate rate cut and strong US data that beat expectations on how quickly US rates could fall, particularly if Trump wins the election. presidency.
The yen JPY=EBS fell 0.1 percent to 149.32 per dollar, holding on the stronger side of 150 per dollar, having briefly surpassed that level last week for the first time since early August.
The dollar index = measure of the USD against its main rivals was at 103.45. It fell 0.3 percent on Friday as risk appetite rebounded broadly across markets after China announced more details of its sweeping stimulus package, but posted gains of 0.55 percent for the week. The euro was stable at $1.0866 EUR= and the British pound GBP=D3 was also stable around $1.3045.
Bitcoin received a boost from Trump’s improved prospects as his administration is seen as taking a softer line on cryptocurrency regulation. It was last up 0.8 percent at $69,400 BTC=, and is up 18 percent since October 10.
With no major economic events expected this week, market attention will focus on corporate earnings and U.S. election risk, and possibly an increase in costs to hedge the dollar and other portfolio risks, said Chris Weston, head of research from Australian online broker Pepperstone, in a note.
“With just 15 days until the US election, traders must decide if now is the right time to begin election trading with greater conviction,” Weston said.
The clearest way to express Trump’s tariff risk was to be long-term in dollars against the euro, the Swiss franc and the Mexican peso MXN=, he said.
Brad Bechtel, global head of foreign exchange at Jefferies, also noted that rising real interest rates were helping the dollar, particularly against those three currencies.
“We expect this trend to continue through the election and, if Trump wins, probably well after the election as well,” Bechtel wrote.
Last week, the yen fell 0.3 percent, the euro fell 0.6 percent, the pound was stable and the dollar index rose 0.55 percent. The Mexican peso MXN= fell 3 percent.
The euro EUR=EBS is down more than 3 percent in three weeks and has fallen below its 200-day moving average, and is parked near a two-and-a-half-month low.
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