The latest trip by the top American diplomat, the 11th to the region since Palestinian Hamas militants attacked southern Israel on October 7 and sparked the Gaza war, comes as the Israeli military has intensified its campaign in the Palestinian enclave, as well as in Lebanon, against Hezbollah, aligned with Iran. militia.
Blinken’s planned weeklong trip, which will include a stop in Jordan on Wednesday and Doha, also comes as the region prepares for Israel’s response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1. The retaliation could disrupt oil markets and risks triggering a full-blown war between the archenemies.
In Gaza, Blinken will focus discussions on how to end the war, plans for the enclave after the fighting ends and how to improve humanitarian assistance, a senior State Department official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Last week, Blinken and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin wrote to Israeli officials demanding concrete steps to address the worsening situation in Gaza, or face potential restrictions on US military aid.
The official said that in his meetings with Israel and Arab countries, Blinken will delve into “day after” issues, particularly security, governance and reconstruction. Having detailed plans for each of them has been considered a prerequisite for achieving a lasting resolution of the conflict.
The secretary of state will also discuss with Israel and other countries how to secure a diplomatic resolution to the conflict with Hezbollah, and will continue Washington’s conversation with the Israelis about their expected response to Iran’s missile attack, the official said.
Advance ‘hard to imagine’
Experts say Hamas and Israel remain deeply at odds and are unlikely to make significant concessions before the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, which could upend American politics.
“It’s very difficult to imagine” that Blinken would make a breakthrough this week, said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, given that neither Hamas nor Netanyahu have any urgency to end the war.
“Seizing momentum is a fundamentally misleading concept in this case because I’m not sure there is such a thing as momentum,” Miller said.
The Biden administration has presented the killing of Sinwar by the Israeli military last week as a possible opening that would finally pave the way to ending the Gaza war, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the fighting will continue.
Israel is accelerating military operations to push Hezbollah away from its northern border as it advances toward the densely populated Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza, in what Palestinians and UN agencies fear could be an attempt to isolate northern Israel. Gaza from the rest of the enclave.
Analysts say Netanyahu may prefer to wait out US President Joe Biden’s term, which ends in January, and take his chances on the next president, whether it be Democratic candidate Kamala Harris or Republican rival Donald Trump. Netanyahu spoke to Trump about the conflict by phone on Saturday, both Trump and Netanyahu’s office said.
A ceasefire proposal in Gaza that the United States and mediators Egypt and Qatar have worked on for months is no longer feasible, Miller said, and the lack of command and control within Hamas also complicates the negotiation process.
“The most realistic proposal would be if Blinken came and said ‘we’ll do a free-for-all.’ If all the hostages are recovered, the Israelis will declare a ceasefire,” Miller said, warning that even that formulation would have many questions that need answering.
Speaking to reporters on Monday, State Department deputy spokesman Vedant Patel insisted that U.S. officials feel “there is an opportunity to move forward” on a ceasefire.
“I’m not going to speculate on any immediate end product or outcome (of the trip), but we think it’s important to collaborate not only with the Israelis, but also with other partners in the region,” he said.
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