cascadia: Is there a mega earthquake going to happen soon? Here’s when scientists may make it public

Last week, Japan sent out its first mega-earthquake alert after a earthquake magnitude 7.1 on the Richter scale that occurred on the southern island of Kyushu. It was not the main concern, although the tremor did not produce many ramifications, but the greatest tsunami The wave it produced would have reached knee-high.
Instead, seismologists feared the quake would trigger a strain that could set off a bomb ticking off the coast of Japan near the Nankai Trough, which is probably the country’s most dangerous fault line. The Japanese government estimates the subduction zone has the capacity to produce tsunami waves up to 30 meters high and kill nearly a third of a million people.

According to a report by NBC News, Harold Tobin, a seismologist from Washington State, said, “We don’t have such a protocol” in the United States. However, Cascadia The subduction zone has equally dangerous faults. The magnitude-9.0 Cascadia Fault earthquake and fatal tsunami, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, would kill 14,000 people in Oregon and Washington. Tobin has been considering this scenario for years: What justifies raising the alarm if he discovers evidence, however slight, that a catastrophic earthquake is more likely to occur? Part of Tobin’s dilemma stems from this peculiar period in his field: In the most seismically dangerous areas of the world, researchers believe they are closing in on the causes or precursors of earthquakes, but the science is far from conclusive.Read also: Will Jordan Chiles return his 2024 Olympic bronze medal after the IOC’s decision? Here’s what he said

The probability of an earthquake remains low, even in situations where it may be more likely. This raises significant concerns about when exactly to inform people. According to research by USGS geophysicist Danny Brothers, parts of the Cascadia subduction zone, which runs along the US West Coast from Northern California to northern Vancouver Island, are likely to have experienced at least 30 significant earthquakes over the past 14,200 years. On average, a significant earthquake occurs there at least once every 450-500 years. However, Cascadia has been quiet for years; some scientists attribute this to the region being largely “locked in” and under tension. A portion of the seafloor will rip and fall forward, possibly tens of feet or more. A tsunami will reach the shore due to the vertical displacement of the seafloor.

On the Cascadia fault, scientists are better understanding the early warning indicators of a major earthquake. Slow-slip events are being investigated as possible precursors to larger earthquakes, as they release energy gradually over weeks or months. Efforts are underway to improve monitoring of the Cascadia fault. Harold Tobin, the Washington State seismologist, is part of a research team that is mapping the fault more accurately and improving offshore monitoring capabilities. The goal is to gather additional data that can be used to forecast the potential timing of a major earthquake.

Read also: Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez are having a great summer vacation; here’s what they’re up toTobin and geophysicist Laura Wallace are among scientists who believe that giant subduction zone earthquakes may occasionally be preceded by such slow-slip events. Before the magnitude 9 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan in 2011 and triggered the Fukushima nuclear accident that claimed more than 18,000 lives, scientists documented a slow-slip event. Before a magnitude 8.1 earthquake that struck Chile in 2014, a similar pattern occurred. Although Japan is one of the few places with such instruments, geophysicist David Schmidt of the University of Washington noted that the country has an advanced array of seafloor sensors. While the United States lags behind other nations in monitoring the seafloor, Schmidt and Tobin are part of a team that received $10.6 million from the federal government to equip a fiber-optic cable off the coast of Oregon with seismic sensors and seafloor pressure gauges.
The goal of seismologists’ work is to be prepared to warn the public and possibly save lives when the time comes.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Cascadia subduction zone?
A fault known as the Cascadia subduction zone runs from Northern California to Vancouver Island. Because it has the potential to trigger a large-scale earthquake, it is considered extremely dangerous.

How can slow slip phenomena be used to predict large earthquakes?
Slow slip events are seismic movements in which energy is released gradually over a period of weeks or months, rather than occurring suddenly, and could be indicators of larger, catastrophic earthquakes.