China’s rulers are surprised by Kamala Harris and Tim Walz

Cynicism about American politics is rife in China. The reversal of the presidential race since June highlights the limitations of China’s understanding of its superpower rival. When Barack Obama was elected in 2008, his appeal countered the widespread belief in China, reinforced by relentless official propaganda, that the United States was so deeply racist that a black person could not become president. China’s latest report on human rights in the United States, released in May, says racism is worsening, while gender discrimination is “rampant.” But the United States could elect its second black president, and its first woman.

For much of this year, the Biden-Trump contest was a boon to Chinese propagandists, allowing them to portray American democracy as a fight between two men past their cognitive prime, whose jabs resembled playground brawls. By bowing out, Biden has upended that narrative and encouraged some Chinese to question their own system, in which Xi, 71, seems determined to remain leader for life. Last month, a blogger for Netease, a Chinese internet platform, wrote: “For some people, the greatest contribution they can make to the party, the country and the people is to hand over power, get off the stage and go home to play with their grandchildren.” The next sentence — “Yes, I’m talking about you, Biden” — did not appease Chinese censors, who deleted the post.

In 2008, Obama had not been to China and had little foreign policy experience. Before becoming vice president, Harris was in a similar position: a biography of her published in 2021 mentions China only once. As vice president, she has gained more experience in diplomacy. She has made 17 foreign trips, several of them to Asia, including one in 2022 where she briefly met Xi on the sidelines of a summit in Thailand (pictured).

Some of the signs point to a continuation of Biden’s China policy. On trade, there is little sign that Harris will roll back tariffs maintained by both the Trump and Biden administrations. In her first major economic policy speech on Aug. 16, Harris appeared to criticize Trump’s plans to further increase tariffs but backed the idea of ​​an economic policy to help the middle class — the Biden administration’s justification for its protectionism. On diplomacy, in her travels as vice president she condemned “bullying and coercion in the South China Sea,” and in 2022 she met with William Lai Ching-te, who has since become president of Taiwan. If there is a shift, it will be subtle. Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group, a consultancy, says that as president she would be less inclined than Biden to describe geopolitics as a contest between autocracy and democracy, and will emphasize the importance of upholding global rules and norms. “I think this will make it easier for the United States to have honest conversations not only with the Chinese, but with other countries around the world who are not going to hear from Kamala the saying ‘it’s our way or the highway,’” he said.

Complicating the assessment of China is Walz’s potential role as Harris’s adviser on China. In 1989 and 1990, he taught English and American history at a high school in Foshan, in the southern province of Guangdong. Later, while working as a teacher in the United States in the 1990s and 2000s, he organized numerous trips to China for students. He praised the warm welcome he received there. “Harris’s every move … truly has a presidential air,” said one commentator on Weibo, a microblogging platform, in response to Walz’s appointment. Another commentator praised the decision, saying it was like putting wings on a tiger.

The claim that Walz is sympathetic to China also has supporters in the United States. On August 16, House Republicans launched an investigation into his “long and cozy relationship with China.” In fact, Walz is no defender of the Chinese government. His year in Foshan coincided with a fierce crackdown on dissent following the bloody June 4, 1989, crackdown on pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square. Five years later, he married a co-worker on the same day in June. “I wanted to have a date that I would always remember,” his wife, Gwen Walz, was quoted as saying by a newspaper in Nebraska, where he grew up. After being elected to the House of Representatives in 2006, Walz served on the Congressional-Executive Commission on China and supported bills aimed at punishing China for violating human rights. This record is already the subject of intense scrutiny in China. In The Paper, a Shanghai-based media outlet, scholar Diao Daming wrote: “It is difficult to determine whether these actions reflect Walz’s personal views and positions, but they at least point to the Democratic Party’s recent ideas and prejudices.”

For China, the Harris-Walz ticket is unexpected, but the best guess is that it promises continuity on defense and trade and, possibly, a greater emphasis on human rights. Against this backdrop, some in China long for another Trump administration that could bring chaos but also, they hope, strain U.S. alliances and undermine its global image. Yan Xiaodong of HuaYu, a Beijing think tank, recently noted that, with respect to Taiwan, Trump had displayed a “business mindset and approach.” Yan recalled Mao’s words in 1970: “I don’t like the Democratic Party. I prefer the Republican Party.” According to Yan, this observation offers “profound insights”: the theory is that it is easier for Republicans to negotiate with adversaries without appearing weak. In 1972, Richard Nixon visited the country, ending nearly a quarter-century of American efforts to isolate it.

If she wins in November, Harris will likely visit China for the first time in 2025. Is a diplomatic breakthrough possible then? It’s worth keeping expectations low. Just ask Obama about her first trip. In 2009, she tried to give the Chinese a taste of American political culture by meeting with students in a town hall-like setting in Shanghai. Even this small gesture “made Chinese officials nervous,” according to Jeffrey Bader, an adviser, resulting in “painful hand-to-hand combat” between officials on both sides. A future president Harris would find that Xi, who took power three years later, is even less willing to make concessions or tolerate such democratic shenanigans.

© 2024, The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. From The Economist, published under license. The original content can be found at www.economist.com