Union External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said this recently, publicly signalling India’s willingness to work with the next occupant of the Oval Office.
Working with Donald Trump
While India has experience working with Donald Trump, the maverick and unpredictable former US president is known for his back-and-forth on crucial foreign policy decisions, especially on foreign relations.
Just yesterday, Trump calls India an “abuser” of import tariffs While praising Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “fantastic man,” Trump expressed his intention to meet Modi while campaigning in Michigan. During the Prime Minister’s upcoming visit to the US next week.He also indicated that, if elected, he would implement what he called “reciprocal trade” policies.
On September 21, President Joe Biden is scheduled to hold a summit in Delaware with leaders from Australia, India and Japan. Analysts suggest that Washington increasingly sees New Delhi as a counterweight to China’s growing influence in Asia. Notably, several world leaders who have visited the US for meetings with Biden and other summits have also used the opportunity to meet with Trump.
What’s happening with Kamala Harris?
While Harris has not explicitly put forward any policy initiatives targeting India, she has long celebrated her Indian roots: Her mother, Shyamala Gopalan, was born in Chennai before immigrating to the United States.
It would be logical to assume that, if elected, she would at least continue the Biden administration’s policies and implement her own.
The India factor
External Affairs Minister Jaishankar’s statement underlines the Indian establishment’s adaptability in navigating the complexities of American politics, especially ahead of a close election where it is difficult to reasonably predict the winner.
While the Indian government can effectively engage with either candidate, there are nuanced preferences at play.
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Current opinion polls suggest Harris has a slight lead over Trump, but this picture can change quickly, so it is premature to rule out a possible Trump victory.
The Modi government has historically established a working relationship with Trump, characterised by high-profile events such as the “Howdy, Modi!” rally in the US and the “Namaste Trump” event in India.
On the one hand, Harris brings a unique perspective as a politician with Indian roots. However, her progressive stance is causing concern among the Delhi establishment, which tends to view such political ideologies with skepticism.
In her acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention, Harris stressed the importance of US “global leadership” and framed international relations as a struggle between democracy and tyranny. However, the specifics of her India policy remain largely undefined, leaving room for speculation.
In contrast, the BJP-led government may find Trump a natural ally because of their shared conservative values. Both Trump and the BJP espouse ideologies rooted in nationalism, patriotism and tradition. Influential Indian nationalist thinkers have drawn parallels between their beliefs and those of American conservatives, highlighting a common ideological framework. This convergence could foster a more comfortable diplomatic environment if Trump returns to the White House.
Moreover, both Modi and Trump are seen as strong and decisive figures, capable of bringing about significant change.
Trump’s admiration for strong leadership matches Modi’s approach, suggesting a mutual understanding that could facilitate collaboration. The personal relationship developed during their previous terms adds another layer of familiarity that could benefit U.S.-India relations.
However, the geopolitical landscape complicates matters. Modi’s recent initiatives towards Russia, exemplified by his warm interactions with Vladimir Putin, have not been well received by the Biden administration.
Trump’s potential re-election could alter the dynamics of US-India relations, particularly with regard to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Trump has repeatedly stated that he would seek to end the war if re-elected, a move that could ease Western pressure on Russia and consequently benefit India’s strategic interests, particularly regarding its stance against China.
Despite these areas of convergence, there are significant concerns regarding Trump’s foreign policy approach. His tenure was marked by a retreat in global leadership, with the United States withdrawing from key international agreements and organizations.
This isolationist stance could pose challenges to India, which has relied on American support to improve its global standing over the past quarter-century. A Trump administration could prioritise economic protectionism and reduce US security commitments, potentially destabilising the geopolitical landscape in Europe and Asia.
As a rising power, India would likely prefer a US administration that promotes stability and cooperation rather than exacerbates tensions. The prospect of a Trump presidency raises questions about America’s willingness to maintain its role as a global leader, a role that has been instrumental in bolstering India’s international influence.
A Harris administration, by contrast, could take a more predictable approach to foreign policy, in line with established norms of international interaction. However, the lack of clarity regarding its policies towards India leaves room for uncertainty.
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