Early polls indicate Vice President Kamala Harris has gained a lead over the former president Donald Trump among Latino voters. However, he has not yet reached the level of support that Democrats typically need to secure a victory in the White House.
An Axios review of exit polls from the past 50 years finds that Democratic presidential candidates typically need to capture around 64% of the Latino vote to win the presidency. Currently, Harris’ support among Latinos is between 50% and 55%. While this represents a significant improvement over President Joe BidenNumbers from earlier this year show Democrats still have work to do to reach their historic benchmark.
This is what you need to know
Latino voters, who now make up nearly 20% of the U.S. population, are a vital part of the Democratic coalition. However, recent trends have seen this group shift toward the Republican Party, in part due to former President Trump’s appeal on economic policies, his opposition to abortion, and his stricter immigration measures. Despite this, Trump’s controversial rhetoric on immigration and his plan for mass deportations have also alienated many Latino voters.
In response, Harris has actively sought to bolster her appeal among Latino voters, particularly in key swing states. Her campaign recently released an ad highlighting her family’s immigrant background and has included stops across the Southwest, including a major rally in the Phoenix area.
Harris has received the endorsement of the League of United Latin American Citizens
Additionally, Harris’ campaign received a notable boost with the endorsement of the political arm of the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC). This endorsement is particularly significant since LULAC, a historically nonpartisan organization, had never before endorsed a presidential candidate in its nearly 100-year history.
Despite these efforts, Harris needs to increase her support among Latino voters to reach the critical 64% threshold that has historically been essential for Democrats to win the presidency.
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