Japan has issued its first warning of risks beyond those typically seen from a megathrust earthquake after a magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck the edge of a quivering zone of seafloor along the Pacific coast known as the Nankai Trough on Thursday. A possible megathrust earthquake and tsunami at Nankai could kill hundreds of thousands of people and cause $1 trillion in damage to Japan.
What is the risk of a megathrust earthquake?
The Japan Meteorological Agency’s earthquake advisory group said the probability of a larger earthquake occurring after a magnitude 7 tremor is once in a few hundred cases, relatively higher than in normal situations. Earthquakes with a magnitude above 8 are considered megathrust earthquakes.
Japan estimates that the next Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake could be as strong as magnitude 9.1.
Naoshi Hirata, a professor at the University of Tokyo and chairman of the panel, told a news conference that residents in areas that could be hit by such a disaster should review evacuation procedures and remain on alert for a week.
Japan is one of the most earthquake-prone countries, as it lies on the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire, an arc of volcanoes and ocean trenches. In 2011, more than 15,000 people were killed in a magnitude 9 earthquake in northeastern Japan that triggered a tsunami and three reactor meltdowns at a nuclear power plant.
How much damage can it do?
A megathrust earthquake could trigger tremors of maximum magnitude in areas ranging from central Shizuoka (about 150 km south of the capital Tokyo) to south-west Miyazaki. Tsunami waves of up to 30 metres could reach Japan’s Pacific coast within minutes of the quake, depending on the epicentre and tidal conditions.
The disaster, along with landslides and fires, is expected to claim the lives of some 323,000 people and destroy 2.38 million buildings, forcing the evacuation of nearly 10 million survivors.
The economic damage could amount to 220 trillion yen ($1.5 trillion), or more than a third of Japan’s annual gross domestic product, with lasting impacts on the infrastructure and supply chains of coastal industrial powerhouses that produce cars and other key Japanese products.
(With contributions from Reuters)
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