Oil rises 3% due to Libyan standstill and fears of escalation in the Middle East

Oil prices Oil prices rose around 3% on Monday on reports of a near-total production halt in Libya, adding to earlier gains on concerns that escalating conflict in the Middle East could disrupt regional oil supplies.

At 1316 GMT, Brent crude futures were up $2.28, or 2.89%, at $81.30 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures were at $77.30 a barrel, up $2.47, or 3.3%.

Brent crude’s intraday high of $81.40 a barrel is the highest the contract has hit in 11 days.

Prices rose after Libya’s eastern government announced the closure of all oil fields on Monday, halting production and exports.

The Benghazi government is not internationally recognized, but it controls most of Libya’s oil fields. The Tripoli-based National Oil Corporation, which controls oil resources, and the internationally recognized Tripoli government have yet to confirm the news. Libyan factions are in a power struggle for control of the central government. bank “The biggest risk for the oil market is probably a further decline in Libyan oil production due to political tensions in the country, with the risk of production falling from current levels of 1 million barrels per day to zero,” said analyst Giovanni Staunovo of Swiss bank UBS. “We are potentially looking at a large part of Libya’s production being shut down for a while,” added Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.

Investors remain cautious about actions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, or OPEC+, which has plans to increase production later this year, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

“Most oil forecasters expect 2025 oil to be… demand “Growth will remain around 1 million b/d. If Libya were to descend into another bout of civil war, 2025 output could look very similar to this year’s despite higher output from Saudi Arabia and Russia,” added Viktor Katona, senior crude analyst at Kpler.

Oil prices opened higher after Hezbollah fired hundreds of rockets and drones toward Israel on Sunday and the Israeli military said it struck Lebanon with around 100 aircraft to thwart a larger attack, in one of the biggest clashes in more than 10 months of border war that is raising fears of a wider conflict in the region.

“Geopolitical risk factors” willpower “It will likely have a significant impact on the oil market,” said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA in Singapore.

Monday’s gains come after both benchmark oil indices gained more than 2% on Friday as U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell backed the start of interest rate courteous.

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