TikTok ban: Will the US ban TikTok in January? That question is headed to the courts.

TikTok could be banned in the United States within months. Its lawyers will go to court on Monday to challenge that decision, the latest stage in an ongoing standoff between the short-video app and the telecoms giant. United States Government.

For years, TikTok and its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, have been under scrutiny from U.S. lawmakers and intelligence officials over the app’s ties to China. They have argued in congressional hearings and in court filings that the app raises national security Concerned that the Chinese government could use it to access sensitive information about Americans or to spread propaganda, they pushed for a law, signed in April, requiring ByteDance sell the app to a non-Chinese owner or face a ban.

ByteDance and TikTok filed a lawsuit to block the law in May, saying a ban would violate Americans’ free speech rights. They argue there are other, less restrictive ways to address those security concerns.

Federal judges will hear arguments from both sides on Monday, in a hearing that could give an idea of ​​which way the justices are leaning.

The ruling is unlikely to be the final word on the future of TikTok or its 170 million U.S. users. Legal experts expect the case to reach the Supreme Court this fall, before the ban takes effect in mid-January.

What will happen in court on Monday?

Oral arguments will be held in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, where TikTok, ByteDance and a group of TikTok users sued to overturn the law. The law specifies that any challenge must be heard by this court, in part because its judges are familiar with national security arguments.

TikTok and ByteDance, a group of TikTok users and the government will present their arguments. A three-judge panel overseeing the case is then expected to ask questions. Some legal experts anticipate they will make a decision as early as November.

The Supreme Court will decide whether or not to accept the appeal of either party. Many legal experts are convinced that the Supreme Court will hear the case, given the importance of the matter and the court’s interest in Internet-related issues. First Amendment cases in recent years.

Why is TikTok trying to block the new law?

TikTok argues that banning the app would violate Americans’ First Amendment right to free speech. It argues that the First Amendment protects Americans’ right to speak and assemble on the app and that the government cannot prevent users from expressing their ideas through the editor and publisher of their choice. It has also said that changes in TikTok’s ownership could affect its content policies and shape what users can share on the platform.

TikTok and ByteDance have also said a sale is not legal, commercial or technically feasible before the January 19, 2025 deadline imposed by law, especially since the Chinese government has said it is unwilling to allow the export of the technology that powers TikTok’s bizarre video recommendations. They also argue that the government’s national security concerns are “speculative” and do not rise to the level that would justify violating users’ rights to free speech.

The government has said it is not violating the First Amendment because it targets control of TikTok by a foreign adversary rather than free speech on the app, and that users can turn to other social platforms.

TikTok also maintains that Congress failed to adequately consider its efforts to address the government’s security concerns before passing the law. ByteDance and TikTok, which are both private companies, have said they worked hard on a multi-million dollar security plan with OracleTikTok, the US software giant, aimed to manage sensitive data of US users separately from the rest of the company’s operations. The plan also offered exclusive oversight to the US government and Oracle, TikTok said.

The government said in a filing that TikTok’s plan “still allowed certain U.S. user data to flow to China” and allowed ByteDance executives overseas to run TikTok’s U.S. operations.

How will the United States uphold the law?

The Justice Department has argued that the law does not amount to a ban because it gives ByteDance the option to sell TikTok to a government-approved buyer.

The government says its concerns are about TikTok’s ownership, not the app itself. Broadly, it worries that Chinese ownership of the app gives Beijing too much access to sensitive data about American users or that it could control the messages shared on the platform.

But the administration’s strongest arguments are under wraps. Congress passed the law after hearing classified briefings on the threats posed by TikTok’s Chinese ownership from members of the FBI and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

And now, in court proceedings, a substantial portion of Justice Department files are redacted, meaning the public cannot see them, even though they are visible to judges.

Some of the public elements of the government’s case are vague. Casey Blackburn, deputy director of national intelligence, said in a document that TikTok and its parent company have “taken actions in response” to “Chinese demands to censor content outside of China” — meaning TikTok and ByteDance had already made decisions about material on the app at China’s direction.

A Justice Department official said in a separate filing that an internal ByteDance tool allowed the company’s employees in the United States and China to collect information about its users, “including views on gun control, abortion and religion.”

Hasn’t the US tried to regulate TikTok before?

Yes. The architects of this law attempted to inoculate it against the problems that brought down the previous legislation against TikTok.

Last year, Montana passed a law that would have banned TikTok from operating in the state starting Jan. 1, 2024, citing security concerns. A federal judge blocked it, saying it would likely violate the First Amendment and a clause in the U.S. Constitution that gives Congress the power to regulate commerce with foreign nations.

Former President Donald Trump also attempted to ban or force the sale of TikTok in 2020 with an executive order that cited national security concerns. Federal courts blocked the Commerce Department from carrying out its plan in part on First Amendment grounds, while another judge said the government likely overstepped its legal authority and “acted arbitrarily and capriciously by failing to consider obvious alternatives.”

What are the chances of TikTok disappearing?

It’s possible. India banned TikTok in 2020, thereby eliminating the app’s largest market at the time.

But experts’ predictions on whether this will happen in the United States are very mixed.

Alan Rozenshtein, an associate professor at the University of Minnesota Law School, said it was “slightly more likely than not” that TikTok would face a ban next spring, while Jameel Jaffer, executive director of the Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University, which filed a brief in the case supporting TikTok and ByteDance, said the court would strike down the law because it was “constitutionally unjustifiable.”

Only 32% of Americans support banning TikTok, down from 50% in March 2023, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey.

The same poll showed that 31% of Americans thought it was at least somewhat likely to be banned, and 19% were unsure whether it would be banned.

Avoiding a ban would require an outside buyer, but while there has been some interest from the likes of billionaire Frank McCourt, TikTok and ByteDance have not commented on such proposals and have publicly said they aim to overturn the law.