UK could suffer Mpox ‘explosion’ in just two weeks, experts fear amid growing threat of double outbreak

The UK is set to see an outbreak of the new, more lethal and highly fatal Mpox virus subtype within two weeks, an infectious disease expert has warned. In an interview with The Sun, Dr Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said he would “bet” on cases occurring in the UK within a fortnight as the disease develops and people with symptoms seek medical treatment.

The mutant strain of Mpox, known as Clade 1B, has spread rapidly from the Democratic Republic of Congo to several neighboring African countries, prompting the World Health Organization to declare it a public health emergency.

In addition, the first case outside the continent was detected in Sweden last week, prompting the National Health Service to declare a high alert throughout the country. “We are likely to have infections in Britain already,” said Dr Paul.

Paul says he fears the worst, as the first visual symptoms of the disease — the lesions — don’t appear until at least 10 or 12 days after infection, meaning most don’t seek medical treatment until around day 13. “If someone were to get infected with group 1B today, we almost certainly wouldn’t know about it until at least two weeks later, probably three,” he said.

And it is precisely because of this delay in results that cases may explode in the UK in the next two weeks, Dr Paul explained. “I would bet on it,” he said, “but I can’t say for sure.”

Rise of Clade 2 is now in the UK

The U.K. is already seeing a rise in cases of another variant, Clade 2 Mpox, which sparked the latest global health emergency in 2022. However, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Clade 2 is known for milder symptoms and typically does not cause deaths.

According to experts, clade 2 is typically spread through sexual contact and has largely spread among men who have sex with men. In July, 43 confirmed or “highly probable” cases of the clade 2 Mpox variant were detected in England, the UK Health Security Office (UKHSA) revealed.

According to Dr. Paul, the only way to differentiate between the two clades is to send samples of the virus to a lab for analysis, which takes about a week. “Therefore, there is a possibility that some of these cases are clade 1B,” he said.

What is a double Mpox outbreak?

Experts have warned that there could be a potential risk of both clades spreading at the same time, potentially causing a double outbreak of Mpox virus. “This could happen if both clades affected different populations, with one affecting female sex workers and the other affecting men who sleep with men,” Dr Paul explained.

However, if they affect the same group, one is likely to override the other. “It’s a bit like what happens when a new COVID-19 variant appears and all the other variants disappear because they simply can’t compete with it,” he added.

UK takes precautions

The UKHSA says it is fully alert to new developments and has advised anyone planning to travel to an affected area to consult their doctors. “Travellers to areas affected by the ongoing outbreak should take sensible precautions to protect themselves from the risk of infection,” Dr Mary Ramsay, director of public health programmes at the UKHSA, told the Sun.

“Currently, the risk to most travellers is small and vaccination against Mpox infection is not recommended for most people,” she added.