According to InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar Survey performed in seven disputed statesTrump is on track for 296 electoral votes, indicating Harris may already be losing ground. InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery reported that Trump was up in Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, but down 0.4% in Georgia.
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Thanks to their unique methodology, which allows them to get some votes for Trump that other pollsters might not be able to, he and Trafalgar’s Robert Calahy, who covered Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, were among the top three pollsters in the 2016 and 2020 cycles.
However, all of Trump’s leads are small and within the margin of error, so on Election Day, states could still tip in either direction. Towery believes Harris is holding back now that the novelty has worn off. According to Towery, the momentum they were seeing after the Democratic National Convention has come to an end. He also noted that the increases in Democratic enthusiasm that were seen in polls after Harris replaced President Biden have slowed and are now close to parity. He believes next week’s decisive presidential debate will have a significant impact on voter turnout.
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Towery predicted this could become a real turning point like the Carter-Reagan debate that basically sealed the deal in 1980, if Trump presented a realistic and authentic version of himself.
According to South Carolina resident Calahy, the number of conservative Democrats supporting Trump is greater than the number of supporters of Harris. Harris is in a no-win situation and has the most to lose. He also says that because of Harris’ lack of interest in giving interviews, the media feels ignored and angry. However, Calahy warns that the Democratic machine can narrow the gap by one or two points, even though the polls seem to favor Trump. Therefore, a narrow lead in September might not be the end result.
Frequently Asked Questions:
Why does Trump’s lead in key states matter?
Trump appears to be on track to win, with a slight lead in key states.
What effect could the upcoming debate have on the elections?
The debate is seen as a turning point in which Trump must assert his dominance while also showing viewers a more realistic version of himself.
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