London: The heads of British and US foreign intelligence agencies said on Saturday that Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia is a significant achievement that could change the narrative of the gruelling two-and-a-half-year war, while urging Kiev’s allies not to be deterred by Russian threats of escalation.
Richard Moore, head of MI6, said kyiv’s surprise offensive in August to seize territory in Russia’s Kursk region was “typically bold and daring by the Ukrainians, to try to change the game.” He said the offensive, which Ukraine says has captured about 1,300 square kilometers (500 square miles) of Russian territory, had “brought war home to ordinary Russians.”
Speaking alongside Moore at an unprecedented joint public event in London, CIA Director William Burns said the offensive was a “significant achievement” that had exposed vulnerabilities in the Russian military.
Whether Ukraine can turn its tactical achievement into a long-term advantage remains to be seen. So far, the offensive has not diverted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attention from eastern Ukraine, where his forces are closing in on the strategically located town of Pokrovsk.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly pressed his allies to allow Kiev to use Western-supplied missiles to target Russia’s interior and sites from which Moscow launches airstrikes. While some countries, including Britain, are believed to tacitly support the idea, others, such as Germany and the United States, are reluctant.
US President Joe Biden has allowed Ukraine to fire US-supplied missiles towards Russia in self-defence, but the range has been largely limited to cross-border targets considered a direct threat, out of fear of further escalation of the conflict.
Burns said the West should be “conscious” of the risk of escalation but not be “unnecessarily intimidated” by Russian threats.
Burns also warned of the increasingly “troubled” defense relationship between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, which he said threatens both Ukraine and Western allies in the Middle East. North Korea has sent munitions and missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine, while Iran supplies Moscow with attack drones.
Burns said the CIA has not yet seen evidence of China sending weapons to Russia, “but we see a lot less than that.” And he warned Iran against supplying ballistic missiles to Moscow, saying it “would be a dramatic escalation” of the relationship.
Ahead of their joint appearance at the FT Weekend Festival at Kenwood House, London, the two spy chiefs wrote an op-ed for the Financial Times, calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and saying their agencies had “exploited our intelligence channels to push hard for restraint and de-escalation”.
They said a ceasefire in Israel’s war against Hamas “could end the suffering and terrible loss of life of Palestinian civilians and bring the hostages home after 11 months of hellish confinement.”
Burns has been heavily involved in efforts to broker an end to the fighting, traveling to Egypt in August for high-level talks aimed at reaching a deal on the hostages and at least a temporary halt to the conflict.
There has been no agreement so far, though US officials insist a deal is close. Biden recently said there are “just a couple more issues” left to be resolved. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said reports of a breakthrough are “exactly inaccurate.”
“I can’t tell you how close we are now,” Burns told the audience in London. He added that negotiators were working on further detailed proposals to be presented within days.
Burns said that while 90% of the text has been agreed upon by the warring parties, “the last 10% is the last 10% for a reason, because it’s the hardest part to do.”
Burns said ending the conflict would require “some difficult decisions and some political compromises” from both Israel and Hamas.
The United States and Britain are staunch allies of Israel, although London distanced itself from Washington on Monday by suspending some arms exports to Israel because of the risk that they could be used to violate international law.
In their article, Burns and Moore highlighted the strength of the transatlantic relationship in the face of “an unprecedented array of threats,” including an assertive Russia, an increasingly powerful China, and the constant surge in international terrorism, all complicated by rapid technological change.
They highlighted Russia’s “reckless campaign of sabotage” across Europe and “cynical use of technology to spread lies and disinformation designed to drive wedges between us.”
U.S. officials have long accused Moscow of interfering in U.S. elections, and this week the Biden administration seized Kremlin-run websites and accused employees of the Russian broadcaster RT of covertly funding social media campaigns to spread pro-Kremlin messages and sow discord around the November presidential contest.
Western officials have also linked Russia to several planned attacks in Europe, including an alleged plot to burn down Ukrainian-owned businesses in London.
Moore said Russian spies were acting in an increasingly desperate and reckless manner.
“Russian intelligence has gone a bit wild,” he said.
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