Vaccine maker Moderna expects lower sales next year, shares fall 17% to a near four-year low

Modern pushed back its breakeven target by two years on Thursday as it pushed back the timeline for the development of several key products and predicted sales for 2025 below its forecast for the current year, sending its shares near a four-year low.

Shares of the vaccine maker fell 17.1% to $65.88 in midday trading.

The company expects sales of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion in 2025, below analysts’ forecasts of $3.74 billion, according to LSEG data. The midpoint was also below the $3 billion to $3.5 billion in sales it projected for 2024.

The company, which has been struggling to distance itself from its COVID-19 vaccinesaid at an investor conference in New York that the regulatory process for flu and cancer vaccines would take longer than he had indicated.

Moderna expects to have $6 billion in cash on hand by the end of 2024, which Jefferies analyst Michael Yee said was at the low end of his previous view of $6 billion to $7 billion.

Its cost savings would include a $1.1 billion cut from research and development starting in 2026, with most of the action in 2027. “I hope you can see … why we’re daunted by the commercial challenge of launching all of those products really just in the next three years, and that makes us want to start measuring ourselves,” Moderna President Stephen Hoge said. The company expects to break even on a cash operating cost basis in 2028, two years later than its previous view. Next year’s forecast reflects the uncertainty of the COVID and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) markets in the U.S., Chief Financial Officer James Mock said in an interview. Moderna said the adoption of Respiratory syncytial virus vaccine It has been slower than expected.

The forecast also took into account Moderna’s prediction that each of the 10 new products it expects to be approved by 2027 will begin generating significant revenue the year after their approval, he said.

“By 2025, we could have some New product approvals “There’s supposed to be, but there’s not supposed to be a lot of revenue coming from it,” Mock said.

The company said new product launches would drive an average annual growth rate of 25% in revenue between 2026 and 2028.

Moderna said it plans to introduce a FDA application This year, it will expand approval of its RSV vaccine to high-risk adults under age 60, following new data from a late-stage trial.

The regulator approved Moderna’s mRESVIA shot for RSV-associated lower respiratory tract illness in adults 60 and older last May, pitting it against rival vaccines from GSK and Pfizer.

The company said it had dropped its application for accelerated approval as part of its application to the FDA for a standalone flu vaccine. Instead, it will focus on the application for its combination vaccine to protect against COVID and flu, which it plans to submit this year.

Moderna said mRESVIA met all immune response endpoints and was found to be safe and well tolerated in adults 18 years of age and older with compromised immune systems, but did not provide further details on the new study’s findings.

Pfizer said in August that its Abrysvo vaccine, which was approved last year for adults 60 and older, generated a strong immune response in high-risk adults 18 and older.

In June, the FDA expanded the use of GSK’s Arexvy vaccine to adults ages 50 to 59. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention instead recommended RSV vaccines for all adults ages 75 and older, as well as those ages 60 to 74 who are at higher risk for severe RSV due to medical conditions.

Moderna said the FDA’s initial response did not support an accelerated approval based on data from a mid-stage study for its cancer vaccine Developed together with Merck.